Design: Instrumental Variables

This session reviews the basics of Instrumental Variable approaches and then dives into some specific aspects of IVs.

Date

October 14, 2025

Objective

This session aims to strengthen your intuition on Instrumental Variables and on some specific IV topics.

Summary

Instrumental variables are ubiquitous in economics, but their underpinnings are not as straightforward as some other identification strategies. They aim to uncover a source of exogenous variation that affects the treatment but not the outcome directly. This session highlights that an IV estimates a Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) — the average causal effect for compliers — and that the credibility of this estimate critically depends on the strength and validity of the instrument.

Session Outline

  • Introductory example: air pollution and health
  • Fundamental principles
  • LATE
  • Weak instruments
  • Estimation
  • Summaries

Materials

Open slides in html

Open slides in pdf

Exercise

Before class next week (October 21st), please submit the assignment presented in this document.

Specific resources for this lecture

If you should read only one thing of IVs

Chapter 7 of Cunningham (2021)

Courses

Specific points

  • Shift-share: Borusyak, Hull, and Jaravel (2025) and Goldsmith-Pinkham, Sorkin, and Swift (2020) present the logic behind shift-share instruments as well as examples
  • Weak instruments: Keane and Neal (2023)

Example papers discussed in class

  • Deryugina et al. (2019) instruments air pollution with wind direction to study its impacts on air pollution
  • Card (1993) instruments education level with proximity to college to estimate the return to schooling

R Pacakges

There is a breadth of packages to implement IV analyses (ivreg or fixest for instance).

I have used the 3 mentioned above in various projects and recommend using fixest for its versatility. It allows to implement analysis with FE, IVs, limited outcomes and so on. Paired with modelsummary to compute standard errors, you should be able to run a lot of your analyses.

References

Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steffen Pischke. 2009. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. 1 edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Borusyak, Kirill, Peter Hull, and Xavier Jaravel. 2025. “A Practical Guide to Shift-Share Instruments.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 39 (1): 181–204. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.20231370.
Card, David. 1993. “Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling.” Working {{Paper}} 4483. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w4483.
Cunningham, Scott. 2021. Causal Inference: The Mixtape. Yale University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1c29t27.
Deryugina, Tatyana, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif. 2019. “The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction.” American Economic Review 109 (12): 4178–4219. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180279.
Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul, Isaac Sorkin, and Henry Swift. 2020. “Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How.” American Economic Review 110 (8): 2586–2624. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181047.
Huntington-Klein, Nick. 2022. The Effect: An Introduction to Research Design and Causality. 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Keane, Michael, and Timothy Neal. 2023. “Instrument Strength in IV Estimation and Inference: A Guide to Theory and Practice.” Journal of Econometrics 235 (2): 1625–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2022.12.009.